· TD Garden
16%
84%
16% MIL win84% BOS win
Predicted winner
Boston Celtics
High confidenceHigh: the favourite is at least 75%.
Why
Boston Celtics' higher Elo rating (1590 vs 1392) and Boston Celtics' better season record (80% vs 17% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Boston Celtics.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| BOS win probability | 84% | – |
| Spread | BOS -13.1 | – |
| Total points | 230.3 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Milwaukee Bucks
L125–132v CHI
L116–127@ PHI
W110–102v IND
L100–132v HOU
L111–136v CLE
Boston Celtics
L113–121@ DET
W107–103v NY
W134–99v CHI
W125–124v BKN
W125–111v CHI
Season so far
| MIL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-1 |
| Conference rank | 13 | 3 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Points for / game | 113.0 | 120.8 |
| Points against / game | 126.2 | 111.6 |
| Average margin | -13.2 | 9.2 |
BOS at home · MIL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| BOS at home | 4-0 · 122.8–109.2 | 31-14 |
| MIL away | 0-2 · 116.0–127.5 | 13-28 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Milwaukee Bucks
4.0 days
Last played Cleveland Cavaliers, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Boston Celtics
5.0 days
Last played Chicago Bulls, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
7 BOS wins3 MIL wins
- WApr 3, 2026BOS 133 @ MIL 101
- WMar 2, 2026BOS 108 @ MIL 81
- WFeb 1, 2026MIL 79 @ BOS 107
- LDec 11, 2025BOS 101 @ MIL 116
- WDec 6, 2024MIL 105 @ BOS 111
- WNov 10, 2024BOS 113 @ MIL 107
- WOct 28, 2024MIL 108 @ BOS 119
- LApr 9, 2024BOS 91 @ MIL 104
- WMar 20, 2024MIL 119 @ BOS 122
- LJan 11, 2024BOS 102 @ MIL 135
W/L from Boston Celtics's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours MILfavours BOS →
- Elo strength rating+18 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in BOS's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)BOS 82%
- Margin model (weight 50%)BOS 84%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)BOS 84%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.