· Capital One Arena
63%
37%
63% ATL win37% WSH win
Predicted winner
Atlanta Hawks
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Atlanta Hawks' higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1368) and Atlanta Hawks' road form (+0.1 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Atlanta Hawks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH win probability | 37% | – |
| Spread | ATL -4.3 | – |
| Total points | 232.3 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Atlanta Hawks
L114–121v HOU
L110–120@ HOU
L117–129v MIA
W114–111v CLE
L99–121@ NO
Washington Wizards
L102–112v TOR
W124–120@ CHI
L103–110@ CHA
L111–121@ CLE
W95–79v CHA
Season so far
| ATL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Conference rank | 7 | 6 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 116.3 | 110.5 |
| Points against / game | 115.4 | 109.7 |
| Average margin | 0.9 | 0.8 |
WSH at home · ATL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| WSH at home | 2-1 · 108.3–102.3 | 11-30 |
| ATL away | 2-2 · 117.2–111.8 | 23-21 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Atlanta Hawks
4.0 days
Last played New Orleans Pelicans, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Washington Wizards
5.0 days
Last played Charlotte Hornets, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
4 WSH wins6 ATL wins
- LFeb 26, 2026WSH 96 @ ATL 126
- LFeb 24, 2026WSH 98 @ ATL 119
- LDec 6, 2025ATL 131 @ WSH 116
- WNov 25, 2025ATL 113 @ WSH 132
- LFeb 8, 2025ATL 125 @ WSH 111
- LNov 15, 2024WSH 117 @ ATL 129
- WOct 30, 2024ATL 120 @ WSH 133
- WOct 28, 2024WSH 121 @ ATL 119
- WJan 13, 2024WSH 127 @ ATL 99
- LDec 31, 2023ATL 130 @ WSH 126
W/L from Washington Wizards's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours ATLfavours WSH →
- Elo strength rating-17 pts
- Home / road form-2 pts
- Season record-0 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+0 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in WSH's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)WSH 36%
- Margin model (weight 50%)WSH 39%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)WSH 38%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.