· Little Caesars Arena
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Detroit Pistons' higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1553) and Detroit Pistons' better point margin this season (+8.0 vs +3.9 per game) drive most of this prediction towards Detroit Pistons.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DET win probability | 69% | – |
| Spread | DET -6.4 | – |
| Total points | 215.1 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| PHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| Conference rank | 1 | 2 |
| Last 10 | 6-1 | 5-1 |
| Streak | W3 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 108.7 | 109.8 |
| Points against / game | 104.9 | 101.8 |
| Average margin | 3.9 | 8.0 |
DET at home · PHI on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DET at home | 2-0 · 109.0–101.0 | 37-12 |
| PHI away | 3-0 · 109.7–104.3 | 25-22 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WOct 25, 2026DET 106 @ PHI 93
- WApr 4, 2026DET 116 @ PHI 93
- WMar 12, 2026PHI 109 @ DET 131
- WNov 14, 2025PHI 105 @ DET 114
- WNov 9, 2025DET 111 @ PHI 108
- WFeb 7, 2025PHI 112 @ DET 125
- LNov 30, 2024PHI 111 @ DET 96
- WOct 30, 2024DET 105 @ PHI 95
- LApr 9, 2024DET 102 @ PHI 120
- LDec 15, 2023DET 92 @ PHI 124
W/L from Detroit Pistons's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+6 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+0 pts
Change in DET's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)DET 66%
- Margin model (weight 50%)DET 70%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DET 70%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.