· crypto.com Arena
34%
66%
34% MIA win66% LAL win
Predicted winner
Los Angeles Lakers
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Los Angeles Lakers' higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1493) drives most of this prediction towards Los Angeles Lakers.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL win probability | 66% | – |
| Spread | LAL -5.5 | – |
| Total points | 234.9 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Miami Heat
L111–128v DET
L110–115@ CHA
L109–113v DAL
W129–117@ ATL
W145–125v IND
Los Angeles Lakers
W125–117v LAC
W132–123@ UTAH
L129–136v POR
W103–87@ LAC
L95–112@ GS
Season so far
| MIA | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 12 | 5 |
| Last 10 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 118.3 | 118.5 |
| Points against / game | 121.5 | 113.3 |
| Average margin | -3.2 | 5.2 |
LAL at home · MIA on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL at home | 2-1 · 127.0–119.3 | 30-16 |
| MIA away | 1-1 · 119.5–116.0 | 17-24 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Miami Heat
3.1 days
Last played Indiana Pacers, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Los Angeles Lakers
3.0 days
Last played Golden State Warriors, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 LAL wins5 MIA wins
- WMar 19, 2026LAL 134 @ MIA 126
- WNov 2, 2025MIA 120 @ LAL 130
- WJan 15, 2025MIA 108 @ LAL 117
- LDec 4, 2024LAL 93 @ MIA 134
- LJan 3, 2024MIA 110 @ LAL 96
- LNov 6, 2023LAL 107 @ MIA 108
- WJan 4, 2023MIA 109 @ LAL 112
- LDec 28, 2022LAL 98 @ MIA 112
- LJan 23, 2022LAL 107 @ MIA 113
- WNov 10, 2021MIA 117 @ LAL 120
W/L from Los Angeles Lakers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours MIAfavours LAL →
- Elo strength rating+7 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in LAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)LAL 67%
- Margin model (weight 50%)LAL 64%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAL 68%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.