· Chase Center
Low: close to a coin flip.
Golden State Warriors' better season record (50% vs 25% wins) and Golden State Warriors' recent point differential (+6.0 vs -11.8 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards Golden State Warriors. Phoenix Suns' higher Elo rating (1492 vs 1485) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| GS win probability | 60% | – |
| Spread | GS -3.4 | – |
| Total points | 229.5 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| PHX | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Conference rank | 12 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 112.0 | 116.7 |
| Points against / game | 124.5 | 115.3 |
| Average margin | -12.5 | 1.3 |
GS at home · PHX on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| GS at home | 1-1 · 110.0–103.0 | 22-19 |
| PHX away | 0-2 · 98.5–124.5 | 20-23 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LOct 24, 2026GS 122 @ PHX 131
- WFeb 5, 2026GS 101 @ PHX 97
- WDec 20, 2025PHX 116 @ GS 119
- LDec 18, 2025GS 98 @ PHX 99
- WNov 4, 2025PHX 107 @ GS 118
- WApr 8, 2025GS 133 @ PHX 95
- LJan 31, 2025PHX 130 @ GS 105
- WDec 28, 2024PHX 105 @ GS 109
- LNov 30, 2024GS 105 @ PHX 113
- WFeb 10, 2024PHX 112 @ GS 113
W/L from Golden State Warriors's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Season record+3 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Elo strength rating-1 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
Change in GS's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)GS 57%
- Margin model (weight 50%)GS 63%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)GS 58%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.