· Ball Arena
42%
58%
42% POR win58% DEN win
Predicted winner
Denver Nuggets
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
Denver Nuggets' higher Elo rating (1564 vs 1528) drives most of this prediction towards Denver Nuggets. Portland Trail Blazers' better season record (80% vs 60% wins) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN win probability | 58% | – |
| Spread | DEN -2.8 | – |
| Total points | 229.1 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Portland Trail Blazers
W124–83v PHX
W128–120@ SAC
W136–129@ LAL
L103–124v MEM
W112–90@ UTAH
Denver Nuggets
L84–96@ OKC
W141–135v NO
L114–134v GS
W104–91@ NO
W127–120@ PHX
Season so far
| POR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 120.6 | 114.0 |
| Points against / game | 109.2 | 115.2 |
| Average margin | 11.4 | -1.2 |
DEN at home · POR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DEN at home | 1-1 · 127.5–134.5 | 30-14 |
| POR away | 3-0 · 125.3–113.0 | 19-25 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Portland Trail Blazers
2.3 days
Last played Utah Jazz, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Denver Nuggets
3.0 days
Last played Phoenix Suns, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
7 DEN wins3 POR wins
- WApr 6, 2026POR 132 @ DEN 137
- WMar 22, 2026POR 112 @ DEN 128
- WFeb 20, 2026DEN 157 @ POR 103
- LOct 31, 2025DEN 107 @ POR 109
- LMar 21, 2025DEN 109 @ POR 128
- WFeb 12, 2025POR 121 @ DEN 132
- WFeb 10, 2025POR 117 @ DEN 146
- LDec 19, 2024DEN 124 @ POR 126
- WMar 23, 2024DEN 114 @ POR 111
- WFeb 23, 2024DEN 127 @ POR 112
W/L from Denver Nuggets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours PORfavours DEN →
- Elo strength rating+4 pts
- Season record-3 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+0 pts
Change in DEN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)DEN 63%
- Margin model (weight 50%)DEN 55%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DEN 60%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.