· Frost Bank Center
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
San Antonio Spurs' higher Elo rating (1639 vs 1347) and San Antonio Spurs' recent point differential (+11.0 vs -8.2 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards San Antonio Spurs.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| SA win probability | 88% | – |
| Spread | SA -16.0 | – |
| Total points | 229.6 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| UTAH | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 14 | 4 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W4 |
| Points for / game | 108.7 | 117.3 |
| Points against / game | 118.8 | 110.2 |
| Average margin | -10.2 | 7.2 |
SA at home · UTAH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| SA at home | 2-2 · 116.2–111.0 | 38-14 |
| UTAH away | 0-1 · 103.0–123.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WOct 28, 2026SA 117 @ UTAH 111
- WJan 22, 2026SA 126 @ UTAH 109
- WJan 19, 2026UTAH 110 @ SA 123
- LDec 27, 2025UTAH 127 @ SA 114
- WNov 26, 2024SA 128 @ UTAH 115
- WNov 21, 2024UTAH 118 @ SA 126
- LNov 9, 2024UTAH 111 @ SA 110
- WOct 31, 2024SA 106 @ UTAH 88
- WMar 27, 2024SA 118 @ UTAH 111
- LFeb 25, 2024SA 109 @ UTAH 128
W/L from San Antonio Spurs's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+23 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+1 pts
Change in SA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)SA 89%
- Margin model (weight 50%)SA 88%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)SA 87%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.