· Toyota Center (Houston)
41%
59%
41% BOS win59% HOU win
Predicted winner
Houston Rockets
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards Houston Rockets.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU win probability | 59% | – |
| Spread | HOU -3.1 | – |
| Total points | 222.3 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Boston Celtics
L113–121@ DET
W107–103v NY
W134–99v CHI
W125–124v BKN
W125–111v CHI
Houston Rockets
W121–114@ ATL
W120–110v ATL
W132–100@ MIL
L111–116@ DAL
W119–98v OKC
Season so far
| BOS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 6-1 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 2 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 6-1 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 120.8 | 120.7 |
| Points against / game | 111.6 | 108.3 |
| Average margin | 9.2 | 12.4 |
HOU at home · BOS on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| HOU at home | 3-0 · 122.3–106.0 | 31-13 |
| BOS away | 0-1 · 113.0–121.0 | 28-16 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Boston Celtics
3.1 days
Last played Chicago Bulls, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Houston Rockets
2.0 days
Last played Oklahoma City Thunder, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
3 HOU wins7 BOS wins
- LFeb 4, 2026BOS 114 @ HOU 93
- WNov 1, 2025HOU 128 @ BOS 101
- WJan 27, 2025HOU 114 @ BOS 112
- LJan 3, 2025BOS 109 @ HOU 86
- LJan 21, 2024BOS 116 @ HOU 107
- LJan 13, 2024HOU 113 @ BOS 145
- WMar 13, 2023BOS 109 @ HOU 111
- LDec 27, 2022HOU 102 @ BOS 126
- LNov 22, 2021HOU 90 @ BOS 108
- LOct 24, 2021BOS 107 @ HOU 97
W/L from Houston Rockets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours BOSfavours HOU →
- Season record+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Elo strength rating+0 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs-0 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
Change in HOU's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)HOU 58%
- Margin model (weight 50%)HOU 60%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)HOU 59%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.