· Target Center
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
Minnesota Timberwolves' higher Elo rating (1568 vs 1392) and Minnesota Timberwolves' better season record (57% vs 17% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Minnesota Timberwolves.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN win probability | 81% | – |
| Spread | MIN -12.0 | – |
| Total points | 229.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| MIL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Conference rank | 13 | 9 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 4-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 113.0 | 120.0 |
| Points against / game | 126.2 | 108.7 |
| Average margin | -13.2 | 11.3 |
MIN at home · MIL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MIN at home | 2-1 · 119.3–104.7 | 30-17 |
| MIL away | 0-2 · 116.0–127.5 | 13-28 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WJan 13, 2026MIN 139 @ MIL 106
- WDec 21, 2025MIL 100 @ MIN 103
- LApr 8, 2025MIN 103 @ MIL 110
- LFeb 12, 2025MIL 103 @ MIN 101
- LFeb 23, 2024MIL 112 @ MIN 107
- WFeb 8, 2024MIN 129 @ MIL 105
- LDec 30, 2022MIN 114 @ MIL 123
- LNov 4, 2022MIL 115 @ MIN 102
- WMar 19, 2022MIL 119 @ MIN 138
- WOct 27, 2021MIN 113 @ MIL 108
W/L from Minnesota Timberwolves's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+16 pts
- Season record+4 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in MIN's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)MIN 80%
- Margin model (weight 50%)MIN 83%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MIN 80%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.