· FedExForum
43%
57%
43% NO win57% MEM win
Predicted winner
Memphis Grizzlies
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage tips it towards Memphis Grizzlies.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM win probability | 57% | – |
| Spread | MEM -2.3 | – |
| Total points | 239.5 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
New Orleans Pelicans
L119–120@ UTAH
L135–141@ DEN
L91–104v DEN
W132–120v SAC
W121–99v ATL
Memphis Grizzlies
W111–108@ GS
W123–112@ SAC
W110–105@ UTAH
W124–103@ POR
W136–105v SAC
Season so far
| NO | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Conference rank | 11 | 1 |
| Last 10 | 2-4 | 6-0 |
| Streak | W2 | W6 |
| Points for / game | 119.7 | 121.2 |
| Points against / game | 117.8 | 106.0 |
| Average margin | 1.8 | 15.2 |
MEM at home · NO on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM at home | 2-0 · 129.5–104.0 | 14-27 |
| NO away | 0-2 · 127.0–130.5 | 9-32 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · New Orleans Pelicans
2.1 days
Last played Atlanta Hawks, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Memphis Grizzlies
2.0 days
Last played Sacramento Kings, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
7 MEM wins3 NO wins
- LJan 30, 2026MEM 106 @ NO 114
- LJan 23, 2026NO 133 @ MEM 127
- WNov 26, 2025MEM 133 @ NO 128
- WOct 22, 2025NO 122 @ MEM 128
- WMar 9, 2025MEM 107 @ NO 104
- WJan 24, 2025NO 126 @ MEM 139
- WDec 27, 2024MEM 132 @ NO 124
- WNov 29, 2024NO 109 @ MEM 120
- LFeb 12, 2024NO 96 @ MEM 87
- WDec 26, 2023MEM 116 @ NO 115
W/L from Memphis Grizzlies's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours NOfavours MEM →
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Elo strength rating+1 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
Change in MEM's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)MEM 58%
- Margin model (weight 50%)MEM 55%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MEM 59%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.