· American Airlines Center
28%
72%
28% SAC win72% DAL win
Predicted winner
Dallas Mavericks
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Dallas Mavericks' higher Elo rating (1459 vs 1363) and Dallas Mavericks' better season record (67% vs 0% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Dallas Mavericks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL win probability | 72% | – |
| Spread | DAL -7.7 | – |
| Total points | 234.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Sacramento Kings
L120–128v POR
L112–123v MEM
L103–130@ SA
L120–132@ NO
L105–136@ MEM
Dallas Mavericks
W121–105@ IND
L106–122v SA
W113–109@ MIA
W120–96v OKC
W116–111v HOU
Season so far
| SAC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-6 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 15 | 6 |
| Last 10 | 0-6 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L6 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 109.3 | 114.3 |
| Points against / game | 128.3 | 111.8 |
| Average margin | -19.0 | 2.5 |
DAL at home · SAC on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL at home | 2-1 · 114.0–109.7 | 16-25 |
| SAC away | 0-4 · 106.0–129.8 | 7-34 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Sacramento Kings
2.0 days
Last played Memphis Grizzlies, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Dallas Mavericks
3.0 days
Last played Houston Rockets, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
3 DAL wins7 SAC wins
- LFeb 26, 2026SAC 130 @ DAL 121
- WJan 6, 2026DAL 100 @ SAC 98
- LDec 27, 2025DAL 107 @ SAC 113
- LMar 3, 2025SAC 122 @ DAL 98
- LFeb 10, 2025SAC 129 @ DAL 128
- LDec 30, 2024DAL 100 @ SAC 110
- WMar 29, 2024DAL 107 @ SAC 103
- WMar 26, 2024DAL 132 @ SAC 96
- LJan 27, 2024SAC 120 @ DAL 115
- LNov 19, 2023SAC 129 @ DAL 113
W/L from Dallas Mavericks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours SACfavours DAL →
- Elo strength rating+10 pts
- Season record+3 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
- Home / road form-0 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+0 pts
Change in DAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)DAL 71%
- Margin model (weight 50%)DAL 72%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DAL 72%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.