· Kia Center
30%
70%
30% WSH win70% ORL win
Predicted winner
Orlando Magic
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Orlando Magic's higher Elo rating (1515 vs 1368) drives most of this prediction towards Orlando Magic. Washington Wizards' better season record (50% vs 40% wins) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| ORL win probability | 70% | – |
| Spread | ORL -7.2 | – |
| Total points | 226.4 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Washington Wizards
L102–112v TOR
W124–120@ CHI
L103–110@ CHA
L111–121@ CLE
W95–79v CHA
Orlando Magic
L125–132v ATL
L93–115v MIN
W111–102@ NY
L99–129@ TOR
W121–114@ TOR
Season so far
| WSH | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Conference rank | 6 | 9 |
| Last 10 | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 110.5 | 109.8 |
| Points against / game | 109.7 | 118.4 |
| Average margin | 0.8 | -8.6 |
ORL at home · WSH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| ORL at home | 0-2 · 109.0–123.5 | 28-17 |
| WSH away | 1-2 · 112.7–117.0 | 6-35 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Washington Wizards
3.1 days
Last played Charlotte Hornets, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Orlando Magic
3.0 days
Last played Toronto Raptors, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
9 ORL wins1 WSH wins
- WMar 12, 2026WSH 131 @ ORL 136
- WMar 3, 2026WSH 109 @ ORL 126
- LJan 6, 2026ORL 112 @ WSH 120
- WNov 1, 2025ORL 125 @ WSH 94
- WApr 3, 2025ORL 109 @ WSH 97
- WMar 21, 2025ORL 120 @ WSH 105
- WFeb 23, 2025WSH 90 @ ORL 110
- WNov 10, 2024WSH 94 @ ORL 121
- WMar 6, 2024ORL 119 @ WSH 109
- WDec 26, 2023ORL 127 @ WSH 119
W/L from Orlando Magic's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours WSHfavours ORL →
- Elo strength rating+15 pts
- Season record-3 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in ORL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)ORL 77%
- Margin model (weight 50%)ORL 66%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ORL 69%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.