· Madison Square Garden
High: the favourite is at least 75%.
New York Knicks' higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1346) and New York Knicks' recent point differential (+0.4 vs -11.0 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards New York Knicks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NY win probability | 86% | – |
| Spread | NY -14.7 | – |
| Total points | 219.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| BKN | NY | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 15 | 10 |
| Last 10 | 0-5 | 2-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 110.2 | 107.0 |
| Points against / game | 121.2 | 107.7 |
| Average margin | -11.0 | -0.7 |
NY at home · BKN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NY at home | 1-2 · 104.3–104.7 | 38-12 |
| BKN away | 0-2 · 122.5–125.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMar 20, 2026NY 93 @ BKN 92
- WJan 21, 2026BKN 66 @ NY 120
- WNov 24, 2025NY 113 @ BKN 100
- WNov 9, 2025BKN 98 @ NY 134
- WApr 13, 2025NY 113 @ BKN 105
- WJan 21, 2025NY 99 @ BKN 95
- WNov 17, 2024BKN 104 @ NY 114
- WNov 15, 2024BKN 122 @ NY 124
- WApr 12, 2024BKN 107 @ NY 111
- WMar 23, 2024BKN 93 @ NY 105
W/L from New York Knicks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+22 pts
- Recent point differential+2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in NY's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)NY 88%
- Margin model (weight 50%)NY 85%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NY 87%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.