· Gainbridge Fieldhouse
60%
40%
60% ATL win40% IND win
Predicted winner
Atlanta Hawks
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
Atlanta Hawks' higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1387) and Atlanta Hawks' road form (+0.1 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Atlanta Hawks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| IND win probability | 40% | – |
| Spread | ATL -3.3 | – |
| Total points | 231.7 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Atlanta Hawks
L114–121v HOU
L110–120@ HOU
L117–129v MIA
W114–111v CLE
L99–121@ NO
Indiana Pacers
L105–121v DAL
W136–109@ BKN
L102–110@ MIL
L109–114v PHI
L125–145@ MIA
Season so far
| ATL | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 7 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Points for / game | 116.3 | 116.7 |
| Points against / game | 115.4 | 119.8 |
| Average margin | 0.9 | -3.2 |
IND at home · ATL on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| IND at home | 0-2 · 107.0–117.5 | 11-30 |
| ATL away | 2-2 · 117.2–111.8 | 23-21 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Atlanta Hawks
2.1 days
Last played New Orleans Pelicans, Oct 31, 2026
Rest · Indiana Pacers
3.0 days
Last played Miami Heat, Oct 30, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
6 IND wins4 ATL wins
- WJan 31, 2026ATL 124 @ IND 129
- LJan 26, 2026IND 116 @ ATL 132
- LOct 31, 2025ATL 128 @ IND 108
- LMar 8, 2025IND 118 @ ATL 120
- LMar 6, 2025IND 118 @ ATL 124
- WFeb 1, 2025ATL 127 @ IND 132
- WApr 14, 2024ATL 115 @ IND 157
- WJan 12, 2024IND 126 @ ATL 108
- WJan 5, 2024ATL 116 @ IND 150
- WNov 21, 2023IND 157 @ ATL 152
W/L from Indiana Pacers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours ATLfavours IND →
- Elo strength rating-15 pts
- Home / road form-2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Rest & back-to-backs+0 pts
Change in IND's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)IND 39%
- Margin model (weight 50%)IND 41%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)IND 40%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.