· Rocket Arena
Low: close to a coin flip.
Cleveland Cavaliers' better point margin this season (+5.0 vs -0.5 per game) drives most of this prediction towards Cleveland Cavaliers. Oklahoma City Thunder's higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1558) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| CLE win probability | 51% | – |
| Spread | CLE -0.4 | – |
| Total points | 223.5 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| OKC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 7 | 4 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 106.5 | 121.0 |
| Points against / game | 107.0 | 116.0 |
| Average margin | -0.5 | 5.0 |
CLE at home · OKC on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| CLE at home | 3-0 · 124.3–119.0 | 33-17 |
| OKC away | 1-2 · 103.3–114.3 | 35-12 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LFeb 22, 2026CLE 113 @ OKC 121
- LJan 19, 2026OKC 136 @ CLE 104
- LJan 16, 2025CLE 114 @ OKC 134
- WJan 8, 2025OKC 122 @ CLE 129
- LNov 8, 2023CLE 120 @ OKC 128
- LOct 27, 2023OKC 108 @ CLE 105
- LJan 27, 2023CLE 100 @ OKC 112
- WDec 10, 2022OKC 102 @ CLE 110
- WJan 22, 2022OKC 87 @ CLE 94
- WJan 15, 2022CLE 107 @ OKC 102
W/L from Cleveland Cavaliers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-9 pts
- Season record+2 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Home / road form-0 pts
Change in CLE's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)CLE 46%
- Margin model (weight 50%)CLE 54%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)CLE 54%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.