· crypto.com Arena
Low: close to a coin flip.
Los Angeles Lakers' higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1525) drives most of this prediction towards Los Angeles Lakers. Toronto Raptors' better point margin this season (+10.6 vs +5.2 per game) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL win probability | 57% | 62% |
| Spread | LAL -2.5 | LAL -4.5 |
| Total points | 222.3 | 227.5 |
| Moneyline | LAL -180 · TOR +150 |
DraftKings (via ESPN). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap -4 pts on LAL winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| TOR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 5 |
| Last 10 | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 116.8 | 118.5 |
| Points against / game | 106.2 | 113.3 |
| Average margin | 10.6 | 5.2 |
LAL at home · TOR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL at home | 2-1 · 127.0–119.3 | 30-16 |
| TOR away | 1-1 · 103.0–109.5 | 22-23 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WJan 18, 2026TOR 93 @ LAL 110
- WDec 4, 2025LAL 123 @ TOR 120
- WNov 10, 2024TOR 103 @ LAL 123
- WNov 1, 2024LAL 131 @ TOR 125
- WApr 2, 2024LAL 128 @ TOR 111
- WJan 9, 2024TOR 131 @ LAL 132
- WMar 10, 2023TOR 112 @ LAL 122
- LDec 7, 2022LAL 113 @ TOR 126
- WMar 18, 2022LAL 128 @ TOR 123
- LMar 14, 2022TOR 114 @ LAL 103
W/L from Los Angeles Lakers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+4 pts
- Season record-2 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in LAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)LAL 63%
- Margin model (weight 50%)LAL 54%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAL 58%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.