Data last updated Season 2026-27Model v20261029-acb94a
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· Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Nets
Away · 0-5
Projected
113 – 117
Pacers
Home · 2-4
38% BKN win62% IND win
Predicted winner
Indiana Pacers
Medium confidence

Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.

Why

Indiana Pacers' higher Elo rating (1387 vs 1346) and Indiana Pacers' recent point differential (-4.4 vs -11.0 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards Indiana Pacers.

Model vs betting line

ModelMarket
IND win probability62%61%
SpreadIND -4.2IND -4.5
Total points229.7230.5
MoneylineIND -175 · BKN +145

DraftKings (via ESPN). Moneyline margin of 4.5% removed. Gap +1 pts on IND winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Brooklyn Nets
L103–110v CHA
L121–125@ CLE
L109–136v IND
L124–125@ BOS
L94–110v DET
Indiana Pacers
L105–121v DAL
W136–109@ BKN
L102–110@ MIL
L109–114v PHI
L125–145@ MIA

Season so far

BKNIND
Record0-52-4
Conference rank1511
Last 100-52-4
StreakL5L3
Points for / game110.2116.7
Points against / game121.2119.8
Average margin-11.0-3.2

IND at home · BKN on the road

This seasonLast season
IND at home0-2 · 107.0–117.511-30
BKN away0-2 · 122.5–125.08-33

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Brooklyn Nets
1.9 days
Last played Detroit Pistons, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Indiana Pacers
1.9 days
Last played Miami Heat, Oct 30, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

7 IND wins3 BKN wins
  • WOct 25, 2026IND 136 @ BKN 109
  • WApr 9, 2026IND 123 @ BKN 94
  • WFeb 11, 2026IND 115 @ BKN 110
  • LNov 5, 2025BKN 112 @ IND 103
  • WMar 22, 2025BKN 103 @ IND 108
  • WMar 20, 2025BKN 99 @ IND 105
  • WJan 6, 2025IND 113 @ BKN 99
  • LDec 4, 2024IND 90 @ BKN 99
  • LApr 3, 2024IND 111 @ BKN 115
  • WApr 1, 2024BKN 111 @ IND 133

W/L from Indiana Pacers's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours BKNfavours IND →
  • Elo strength rating+5 pts
  • Recent point differential+2 pts
  • Season record+1 pts
  • Home / road form-1 pts
  • Points scored / allowed+0 pts

Change in IND's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 35%)IND 64%
  • Margin model (weight 50%)IND 61%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)IND 64%

Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.