· Kia Center
Low: close to a coin flip.
Boston Celtics' higher Elo rating (1590 vs 1515) and Boston Celtics' better season record (80% vs 40% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Boston Celtics.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| ORL win probability | 40% | 31% |
| Spread | BOS -3.3 | BOS -6.5 |
| Total points | 220.8 | 222.5 |
| Moneyline | ORL +210 · BOS -258 |
DraftKings (via ESPN). Moneyline margin of 4.3% removed. Gap +9 pts on ORL winning. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| BOS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 9 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | W1 |
| Points for / game | 120.8 | 109.8 |
| Points against / game | 111.6 | 118.4 |
| Average margin | 9.2 | -8.6 |
ORL at home · BOS on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| ORL at home | 0-2 · 109.0–123.5 | 28-17 |
| BOS away | 0-1 · 113.0–121.0 | 28-16 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LApr 12, 2026ORL 108 @ BOS 113
- LNov 23, 2025ORL 129 @ BOS 138
- LNov 9, 2025BOS 111 @ ORL 107
- WNov 7, 2025BOS 110 @ ORL 123
- LApr 29, 2025ORL 89 @ BOS 120playoffs
- LApr 27, 2025BOS 107 @ ORL 98playoffs
- WApr 25, 2025BOS 93 @ ORL 95playoffs
- LApr 23, 2025ORL 100 @ BOS 109playoffs
- LApr 20, 2025ORL 86 @ BOS 103playoffs
- WApr 9, 2025BOS 76 @ ORL 96
W/L from Orlando Magic's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-9 pts
- Season record-4 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in ORL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)ORL 46%
- Margin model (weight 50%)ORL 37%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ORL 37%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.