· crypto.com Arena
Low: close to a coin flip.
Los Angeles Lakers' higher Elo rating (1559 vs 1528) drives most of this prediction towards Los Angeles Lakers. Portland Trail Blazers' better season record (80% vs 67% wins) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL win probability | 59% | – |
| Spread | LAL -3.0 | – |
| Total points | 223.4 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| POR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 5 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 120.6 | 118.5 |
| Points against / game | 109.2 | 113.3 |
| Average margin | 11.4 | 5.2 |
LAL at home · POR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| LAL at home | 2-1 · 127.0–119.3 | 30-16 |
| POR away | 3-0 · 125.3–113.0 | 19-25 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LOct 27, 2026POR 136 @ LAL 129
- LJan 17, 2026LAL 116 @ POR 132
- WNov 3, 2025LAL 123 @ POR 115
- LOct 27, 2025POR 122 @ LAL 108
- LApr 13, 2025LAL 81 @ POR 109
- WFeb 20, 2025LAL 110 @ POR 102
- WJan 2, 2025POR 106 @ LAL 114
- WDec 8, 2024POR 98 @ LAL 107
- WJan 21, 2024POR 110 @ LAL 134
- WNov 17, 2023LAL 107 @ POR 95
W/L from Los Angeles Lakers's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+3 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Home / road form+0 pts
Change in LAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)LAL 62%
- Margin model (weight 50%)LAL 57%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)LAL 60%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.