· Smoothie King Center
Low: close to a coin flip.
Minnesota Timberwolves' higher Elo rating (1568 vs 1443) and Minnesota Timberwolves' better season record (57% vs 33% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Minnesota Timberwolves.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| NO win probability | 41% | – |
| Spread | MIN -2.9 | – |
| Total points | 234.8 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| MIN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Conference rank | 9 | 11 |
| Last 10 | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Points for / game | 120.0 | 119.7 |
| Points against / game | 108.7 | 117.8 |
| Average margin | 11.3 | 1.8 |
NO at home · MIN on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| NO at home | 2-2 · 116.0–111.5 | 17-24 |
| MIN away | 2-2 · 120.5–111.8 | 25-22 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LApr 12, 2026NO 126 @ MIN 132
- WFeb 6, 2026NO 119 @ MIN 115
- LDec 4, 2025MIN 125 @ NO 116
- LDec 2, 2025MIN 149 @ NO 142
- LMar 21, 2025NO 93 @ MIN 134
- WMar 19, 2025NO 119 @ MIN 115
- LJan 7, 2025MIN 104 @ NO 97
- WJan 3, 2024NO 117 @ MIN 106
- WDec 11, 2023MIN 107 @ NO 121
- LNov 18, 2023MIN 121 @ NO 120
W/L from New Orleans Pelicans's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-15 pts
- Season record-1 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Recent point differential-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in NO's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)NO 39%
- Margin model (weight 50%)NO 43%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)NO 44%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.