· Fiserv Forum
69%
31%
69% TOR win31% MIL win
Predicted winner
Toronto Raptors
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Toronto Raptors' higher Elo rating (1525 vs 1392) and Toronto Raptors' better season record (60% vs 17% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Toronto Raptors.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MIL win probability | 31% | – |
| Spread | TOR -6.5 | – |
| Total points | 232.0 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Toronto Raptors
W135–92v CHI
W112–102@ WSH
L94–117@ MIN
W129–99v ORL
L114–121v ORL
Milwaukee Bucks
L125–132v CHI
L116–127@ PHI
W110–102v IND
L100–132v HOU
L111–136v CLE
Season so far
| TOR | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Conference rank | 5 | 13 |
| Last 10 | 3-2 | 1-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Points for / game | 116.8 | 113.0 |
| Points against / game | 106.2 | 126.2 |
| Average margin | 10.6 | -13.2 |
MIL at home · TOR on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MIL at home | 1-3 · 111.5–125.5 | 19-22 |
| TOR away | 1-1 · 103.0–109.5 | 22-23 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Toronto Raptors
7.1 days
Last played Orlando Magic, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Milwaukee Bucks
6.0 days
Last played Cleveland Cavaliers, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
5 MIL wins5 TOR wins
- LFeb 22, 2026TOR 122 @ MIL 94
- LDec 18, 2025TOR 111 @ MIL 105
- LNov 4, 2025MIL 100 @ TOR 128
- WOct 24, 2025MIL 122 @ TOR 116
- WJan 17, 2025TOR 112 @ MIL 130
- WJan 6, 2025MIL 128 @ TOR 104
- WNov 12, 2024TOR 85 @ MIL 99
- LApr 5, 2024TOR 117 @ MIL 111
- WNov 15, 2023MIL 128 @ TOR 112
- LNov 1, 2023MIL 111 @ TOR 130
W/L from Milwaukee Bucks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours TORfavours MIL →
- Elo strength rating-15 pts
- Season record-5 pts
- Recent point differential-3 pts
- Home / road form-1 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
Change in MIL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)MIL 37%
- Margin model (weight 50%)MIL 28%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MIL 29%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.