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Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Oklahoma City Thunder's higher Elo rating (1633 vs 1448) and Oklahoma City Thunder's road form (+1.8 average margin away) drive most of this prediction towards Oklahoma City Thunder. Memphis Grizzlies' better season record (100% vs 67% wins) pulls the other way.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM win probability | 38% | – |
| Spread | OKC -4.2 | – |
| Total points | 230.9 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| OKC | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-2 | 6-0 |
| Conference rank | 7 | 1 |
| Last 10 | 4-2 | 6-0 |
| Streak | L2 | W6 |
| Points for / game | 106.5 | 121.2 |
| Points against / game | 107.0 | 106.0 |
| Average margin | -0.5 | 15.2 |
MEM at home · OKC on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| MEM at home | 2-0 · 129.5–104.0 | 14-27 |
| OKC away | 1-2 · 103.3–114.3 | 35-12 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- LJan 9, 2026OKC 117 @ MEM 116
- LDec 22, 2025MEM 103 @ OKC 119
- LNov 9, 2025OKC 114 @ MEM 100
- LApr 26, 2025OKC 117 @ MEM 115playoffs
- LApr 24, 2025OKC 114 @ MEM 108playoffs
- LApr 22, 2025MEM 99 @ OKC 118playoffs
- LApr 20, 2025MEM 80 @ OKC 131playoffs
- LMar 27, 2025MEM 104 @ OKC 125
- LMar 5, 2025OKC 120 @ MEM 103
- LFeb 8, 2025OKC 125 @ MEM 112
W/L from Memphis Grizzlies's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating-21 pts
- Season record+3 pts
- Home / road form-2 pts
- Points scored / allowed-0 pts
- Recent point differential+0 pts
Change in MEM's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)MEM 30%
- Margin model (weight 50%)MEM 43%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)MEM 36%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.