· American Airlines Center
Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Dallas Mavericks' higher Elo rating (1459 vs 1347) and Dallas Mavericks' recent point differential (+6.6 vs -8.2 per game over the last 5) drive most of this prediction towards Dallas Mavericks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL win probability | 71% | – |
| Spread | DAL -7.6 | – |
| Total points | 239.7 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Season so far
| UTAH | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Conference rank | 14 | 6 |
| Last 10 | 1-5 | 4-2 |
| Streak | L4 | W3 |
| Points for / game | 108.7 | 114.3 |
| Points against / game | 118.8 | 111.8 |
| Average margin | -10.2 | 2.5 |
DAL at home · UTAH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL at home | 2-1 · 114.0–109.7 | 16-25 |
| UTAH away | 0-1 · 103.0–123.0 | 8-33 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Head to head (last 10)
- WJan 17, 2026UTAH 120 @ DAL 138
- WJan 15, 2026UTAH 122 @ DAL 144
- LJan 8, 2026DAL 114 @ UTAH 116
- LDec 15, 2025DAL 133 @ UTAH 140
- WNov 30, 2024DAL 106 @ UTAH 94
- LNov 14, 2024DAL 113 @ UTAH 115
- WOct 28, 2024UTAH 102 @ DAL 110
- WMar 25, 2024DAL 115 @ UTAH 105
- WMar 21, 2024UTAH 97 @ DAL 113
- LJan 1, 2024DAL 90 @ UTAH 127
W/L from Dallas Mavericks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
- Elo strength rating+12 pts
- Recent point differential+1 pts
- Season record+1 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in DAL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)DAL 73%
- Margin model (weight 50%)DAL 70%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)DAL 72%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.