· Spectrum Center
56%
44%
56% BOS win44% CHA win
Predicted winner
Boston Celtics
Low confidenceLow: close to a coin flip.
Why
Boston Celtics' higher Elo rating (1590 vs 1524) and Boston Celtics' better season record (80% vs 43% wins) drive most of this prediction towards Boston Celtics.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| CHA win probability | 44% | – |
| Spread | BOS -2.0 | – |
| Total points | 220.7 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Boston Celtics
L113–121@ DET
W107–103v NY
W134–99v CHI
W125–124v BKN
W125–111v CHI
Charlotte Hornets
W115–110v MIA
W110–103v WSH
L89–97@ DET
L79–95@ WSH
L104–109v PHI
Season so far
| BOS | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 3 | 8 |
| Last 10 | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L3 |
| Points for / game | 120.8 | 98.3 |
| Points against / game | 111.6 | 106.4 |
| Average margin | 9.2 | -8.1 |
CHA at home · BOS on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| CHA at home | 2-2 · 102.5–112.5 | 21-20 |
| BOS away | 0-1 · 113.0–121.0 | 28-16 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Boston Celtics
7.0 days
Last played Chicago Bulls, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Charlotte Hornets
6.1 days
Last played Philadelphia 76ers, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
2 CHA wins8 BOS wins
- LApr 7, 2026CHA 102 @ BOS 113
- LMar 29, 2026BOS 114 @ CHA 99
- WMar 4, 2026CHA 118 @ BOS 89
- LApr 13, 2025CHA 86 @ BOS 93
- LApr 11, 2025CHA 94 @ BOS 130
- LNov 2, 2024BOS 113 @ CHA 103
- LNov 1, 2024BOS 124 @ CHA 109
- LApr 12, 2024CHA 98 @ BOS 131
- LApr 1, 2024BOS 118 @ CHA 104
- WNov 20, 2023BOS 118 @ CHA 121
W/L from Charlotte Hornets's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours BOSfavours CHA →
- Elo strength rating-8 pts
- Season record-4 pts
- Recent point differential-2 pts
Change in CHA's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)CHA 47%
- Margin model (weight 50%)CHA 42%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)CHA 42%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.