Data last updated Season 2026-27Model v20261029-acb94a
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· State Farm Arena

26% WSH win74% ATL win
Predicted winner
Atlanta Hawks
Medium confidence

Medium: the favourite is at least 62%.

Why

Atlanta Hawks' higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1368) drives most of this prediction towards Atlanta Hawks.

Model vs betting line

ModelMarket
ATL win probability74%–
SpreadATL -8.5–
Total points232.1–

No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.

Recent form (last 5)

Washington Wizards
L102–112v TOR
W124–120@ CHI
L103–110@ CHA
L111–121@ CLE
W95–79v CHA
Atlanta Hawks
L114–121v HOU
L110–120@ HOU
L117–129v MIA
W114–111v CLE
L99–121@ NO

Season so far

WSHATL
Record3-33-4
Conference rank67
Last 103-33-4
StreakW1L1
Points for / game110.5116.3
Points against / game109.7115.4
Average margin0.80.9

ATL at home · WSH on the road

This seasonLast season
ATL at home1-2 · 115.0–120.325-19
WSH away1-2 · 112.7–117.06-35

W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.

Rest · Washington Wizards
7.0 days
Last played Charlotte Hornets, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Atlanta Hawks
6.0 days
Last played New Orleans Pelicans, Oct 31, 2026

Head to head (last 10)

6 ATL wins4 WSH wins
  • WFeb 26, 2026WSH 96 @ ATL 126
  • WFeb 24, 2026WSH 98 @ ATL 119
  • WDec 6, 2025ATL 131 @ WSH 116
  • LNov 25, 2025ATL 113 @ WSH 132
  • WFeb 8, 2025ATL 125 @ WSH 111
  • WNov 15, 2024WSH 117 @ ATL 129
  • LOct 30, 2024ATL 120 @ WSH 133
  • LOct 28, 2024WSH 121 @ ATL 119
  • LJan 13, 2024WSH 127 @ ATL 99
  • WDec 31, 2023ATL 130 @ WSH 126

W/L from Atlanta Hawks's point of view.

What moves this prediction

← favours WSHfavours ATL →
  • Elo strength rating+15 pts
  • Home / road form+1 pts
  • Season record+0 pts
  • Points scored / allowed+0 pts

Change in ATL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.

  • Elo (weight 35%)ATL 77%
  • Margin model (weight 50%)ATL 72%
  • Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ATL 74%

Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.