· State Farm Arena
26%
74%
26% WSH win74% ATL win
Predicted winner
Atlanta Hawks
Medium confidenceMedium: the favourite is at least 62%.
Why
Atlanta Hawks' higher Elo rating (1512 vs 1368) drives most of this prediction towards Atlanta Hawks.
Model vs betting line
| Model | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL win probability | 74% | – |
| Spread | ATL -8.5 | – |
| Total points | 232.1 | – |
No betting line stored yet for this game. Betting markets have been more accurate than this model historically (see Performance), so a big gap more often means missing information (injuries, rest decisions) than a mispriced line.
Recent form (last 5)
Washington Wizards
L102–112v TOR
W124–120@ CHI
L103–110@ CHA
L111–121@ CLE
W95–79v CHA
Atlanta Hawks
L114–121v HOU
L110–120@ HOU
L117–129v MIA
W114–111v CLE
L99–121@ NO
Season so far
| WSH | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Conference rank | 6 | 7 |
| Last 10 | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Points for / game | 110.5 | 116.3 |
| Points against / game | 109.7 | 115.4 |
| Average margin | 0.8 | 0.9 |
ATL at home · WSH on the road
| This season | Last season | |
|---|---|---|
| ATL at home | 1-2 · 115.0–120.3 | 25-19 |
| WSH away | 1-2 · 112.7–117.0 | 6-35 |
W-L, then points scored–allowed per game. Regular season and playoffs.
Rest · Washington Wizards
7.0 days
Last played Charlotte Hornets, Oct 30, 2026
Rest · Atlanta Hawks
6.0 days
Last played New Orleans Pelicans, Oct 31, 2026
Head to head (last 10)
6 ATL wins4 WSH wins
- WFeb 26, 2026WSH 96 @ ATL 126
- WFeb 24, 2026WSH 98 @ ATL 119
- WDec 6, 2025ATL 131 @ WSH 116
- LNov 25, 2025ATL 113 @ WSH 132
- WFeb 8, 2025ATL 125 @ WSH 111
- WNov 15, 2024WSH 117 @ ATL 129
- LOct 30, 2024ATL 120 @ WSH 133
- LOct 28, 2024WSH 121 @ ATL 119
- LJan 13, 2024WSH 127 @ ATL 99
- WDec 31, 2023ATL 130 @ WSH 126
W/L from Atlanta Hawks's point of view.
What moves this prediction
← favours WSHfavours ATL →
- Elo strength rating+15 pts
- Home / road form+1 pts
- Season record+0 pts
- Points scored / allowed+0 pts
Change in ATL's win probability when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs.
- Elo (weight 35%)ATL 77%
- Margin model (weight 50%)ATL 72%
- Gradient boosting (weight 15%)ATL 74%
Model version v20261029-acb94a. Weights chosen on the 2016–2020 validation seasons.

