Gameweek 11 · · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
High: the top outcome is at least 60%, or 30+ points clear of the next.
Tottenham Hotspur's higher strength rating (Elo 1574 vs 1483) and Tottenham Hotspur's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +0.4 vs -1.3 per game over the last 10) drive most of this prediction towards a Tottenham Hotspur win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-110.8%
- 22-19.8%
- 32-08.0%
- 41-06.9%
- 53-16.7%
| TOT ↓ IPS → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: TOT 2.07, IPS 1.21.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| TOT | IPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 13th |
| Points | 12 | 11 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-3 | 3-2-4 |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 1.22 |
TOT at home · IPS away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOT at home | 2-1-2 | 7–6 | 1.40 | 3-6-10 · 0.79 ppg |
| IPS away | 1-1-3 | 9–13 | 0.80 | 9-7-7 · 1.48 ppgin the Championship |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| TOT | IPS | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.02 | 1.37 |
| xG against | 1.24 | 2.05 |
| Goals for | 1.11 | 1.56 |
| Goals against | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| Shots for | 14.2 | 10.5 |
| Shots against | 13.4 | 16.9 |
| On target for | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| On target against | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 4 | 0 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 2)
- WFeb 22, 2025Ipswich Town 1–4 Tottenham Hotspur
- LNov 10, 2024Tottenham Hotspur 1–2 Ipswich Town
W/D/L from Tottenham Hotspur's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+20 pts
- Shot numbers+2 pts
- Promoted club+1 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%56%23%21%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%56%25%19%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%61%22%17%
- Eloweight 0%59%24%17%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.