Prediction history · 2026-27

What the model said before each finished match, against what happened. Live rows are predictions frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards (the ledger is version-controlled). Backtest rows cover matches played before this app existed: they come from the same walk-forward models trained only on earlier seasons, so they are out-of-sample but were not published in advance.

Matches

8 live · 80 backtest

Correct outcome

44 / 88

50.0%

Log loss

1.026

bookmakers 1.020 (same 88)

Brier · RPS

0.613 · 0.208

bookmakers 0.611 · 0.205

Running average log loss (lower is better)

Results

Date	Match	Model H / D / A	Market H / D / A	Pick	Log loss
Oct 31, 2026live	AVL1–1FUL	43% 29% 28%	49 / 25 / 26	H	1.22
Oct 31, 2026live	TOT2–0CRY	44% 29% 27%	61 / 22 / 17	H	0.81
Oct 31, 2026live	MCI0–1BHA	53% 26% 21%	58 / 21 / 21	H	1.54
Oct 31, 2026live	HUL2–2IPS	47% 29% 24%	36 / 28 / 36	H	1.23
Oct 31, 2026live	COV3–1SUN	30% 30% 40%	31 / 28 / 41	A	1.20
Oct 31, 2026live	BRE2–0NFO	41% 29% 30%	46 / 26 / 28	H	0.88
Oct 31, 2026live	BOU2–0LEE	46% 28% 26%	44 / 28 / 28	H	0.77
Oct 31, 2026live	CHE2–0MUN	42% 26% 32%	52 / 24 / 24	H	0.88
Oct 25, 2026backtest	SUN0–0LEE	34% 28% 38%	31 / 29 / 40	A	1.26
Oct 25, 2026backtest	CRY0–2NEW	36% 30% 34%	33 / 26 / 41	H	1.07
Oct 25, 2026backtest	HUL1–1BRE	32% 27% 41%	20 / 24 / 56	A	1.29
Oct 25, 2026backtest	MUN0–3BOU	46% 27% 27%	45 / 26 / 29	H	1.31
Oct 25, 2026backtest	LIV2–0BHA	38% 30% 32%	45 / 25 / 30	H	0.98
Oct 24, 2026backtest	CHE0–2TOT	55% 24% 21%	55 / 23 / 22	H	1.55
Oct 24, 2026backtest	COV0–1FUL	29% 31% 40%	31 / 27 / 42	A	0.92
Oct 24, 2026backtest	ARS2–0EVE	64% 25%	66 / 21 / 13	H	0.44
Oct 24, 2026backtest	AVL2–1MCI	27% 23% 50%	20 / 22 / 58	A	1.31
Oct 23, 2026backtest	IPS1–1NFO	28% 27% 45%	31 / 28 / 41	A	1.31
Oct 19, 2026backtest	TOT3–1COV	50% 25% 25%	64 / 21 / 15	H	0.70
Oct 18, 2026backtest	NFO0–1ARS	20% 27% 53%	17 / 24 / 59	A	0.64
Oct 18, 2026backtest	BHA5–0CRY	60% 22% 18%	61 / 21 / 18	H	0.51
Oct 18, 2026backtest	BOU2–0SUN	47% 28% 25%	46 / 27 / 27	H	0.75
Oct 18, 2026backtest	LEE1–1MUN	35% 28% 37%	40 / 27 / 33	A	1.26
Oct 17, 2026backtest	NEW0–1AVL	40% 28% 32%	42 / 26 / 32	H	1.15
Oct 17, 2026backtest	MCI3–2IPS	83%	76 / 15 / 9	H	0.18
Oct 17, 2026backtest	FUL1–0HUL	40% 29% 31%	55 / 24 / 21	H	0.92
Oct 17, 2026backtest	BRE1–2LIV	33% 28% 39%	40 / 26 / 34	A	0.95
Oct 17, 2026backtest	EVE0–2CHE	38% 28% 34%	30 / 26 / 44	H	1.07
Oct 12, 2026backtest	COV4–1NEW	20% 28% 52%	29 / 26 / 45	A	1.62
Oct 11, 2026backtest	LIV0–3MCI	30% 29% 41%	36 / 26 / 38	A	0.90
Oct 11, 2026backtest	HUL2–2EVE	35% 32% 33%	26 / 28 / 46	H	1.13
Oct 11, 2026backtest	CRY3–1NFO	36% 28% 36%	36 / 28 / 36	H	1.02
Oct 10, 2026backtest	MUN1–1TOT	57% 25% 18%	56 / 23 / 21	H	1.39
Oct 10, 2026backtest	CHE5–1BOU	40% 28% 32%	57 / 22 / 21	H	0.92
Oct 10, 2026backtest	AVL2–2BRE	41% 28% 31%	36 / 27 / 37	H	1.26
Oct 10, 2026backtest	SUN0–2BHA	27% 28% 45%	32 / 27 / 41	A	0.79
Oct 10, 2026backtest	IPS2–1FUL	25% 28% 47%	34 / 27 / 39	A	1.41
Oct 10, 2026backtest	ARS2–1LEE	63% 26%	68 / 20 / 12	H	0.47
Sep 20, 2026backtest	FUL1–1MUN	30% 27% 43%	28 / 25 / 47	A	1.30
Sep 20, 2026backtest	MCI5–3SUN	71% 19%	73 / 17 / 10	H	0.35
Sep 20, 2026backtest	LEE0–0CRY	45% 29% 26%	54 / 25 / 21	H	1.23
Sep 20, 2026backtest	BOU0–1LIV	35% 27% 38%	31 / 25 / 44	A	0.97
Sep 19, 2026backtest	NFO0–1COV	71% 20%	60 / 23 / 17	H	2.40
Sep 19, 2026backtest	BHA3–0ARS	22% 26% 52%	20 / 24 / 56	A	1.53
Sep 19, 2026backtest	EVE1–0IPS	61% 23% 16%	53 / 25 / 22	H	0.50
Sep 19, 2026backtest	NEW2–1HUL	41% 30% 29%	60 / 22 / 18	H	0.89
Sep 19, 2026backtest	TOT2–3AVL	34% 29% 37%	48 / 26 / 26	A	1.00
Sep 18, 2026backtest	BRE3–0CHE	39% 28% 33%	36 / 26 / 38	H	0.93
Sep 14, 2026backtest	LEE4–1NEW	38% 30% 32%	40 / 27 / 33	H	0.97
Sep 13, 2026backtest	MUN0–1MCI	27% 26% 47%	30 / 25 / 45	A	0.76
Sep 13, 2026backtest	COV0–5BHA	20% 30% 50%	24 / 25 / 51	A	0.69
Sep 12, 2026backtest	SUN0–2ARS	16% 25% 59%	13 / 23 / 64	A	0.52
Sep 12, 2026backtest	TOT0–0EVE	36% 29% 35%	47 / 27 / 26	H	1.25
Sep 12, 2026backtest	AVL1–2NFO	42% 29% 29%	42 / 28 / 30	H	1.22
Sep 12, 2026backtest	BOU2–2BRE	44% 28% 28%	39 / 26 / 35	H	1.28
Sep 12, 2026backtest	CHE2–2HUL	42% 29% 29%	78 / 14 / 8	H	1.24
Sep 12, 2026backtest	CRY2–3IPS	63% 23% 14%	51 / 25 / 24	H	1.94
Sep 12, 2026backtest	LIV0–0FUL	57% 25% 18%	66 / 19 / 15	H	1.39
Sep 6, 2026backtest	ARS2–1CHE	65% 22%	56 / 25 / 19	H	0.44
Sep 6, 2026backtest	EVE2–2MUN	31% 27% 42%	29 / 27 / 44	A	1.30
Sep 5, 2026backtest	HUL0–0AVL	37% 29% 34%	23 / 26 / 51	H	1.25
Sep 5, 2026backtest	NFO0–0TOT	44% 28% 28%	39 / 28 / 33	H	1.27
Sep 5, 2026backtest	MCI1–0COV	85%	81 / 12 / 7	H	0.17
Sep 5, 2026backtest	FUL2–3CRY	41% 28% 31%	41 / 28 / 31	H	1.18
Sep 5, 2026backtest	BHA1–1LEE	49% 26% 25%	48 / 27 / 25	H	1.36
Sep 5, 2026backtest	BRE1–1SUN	48% 27% 25%	58 / 24 / 18	H	1.30
Sep 5, 2026backtest	NEW2–2BOU	40% 28% 32%	45 / 26 / 29	H	1.26
Sep 4, 2026backtest	IPS0–2LIV	21% 67%	17 / 20 / 63	A	0.40
Aug 31, 2026backtest	AVL0–1ARS	21% 26% 53%	16 / 23 / 61	A	0.62
Aug 30, 2026backtest	MUN5–2IPS	77% 14%	67 / 19 / 14	H	0.26
Aug 30, 2026backtest	SUN1–0FUL	35% 31% 34%	39 / 29 / 32	H	1.05
Aug 30, 2026backtest	LEE1–1BRE	37% 30% 33%	37 / 28 / 35	H	1.21
Aug 30, 2026backtest	CHE4–3BHA	39% 28% 33%	52 / 24 / 24	H	0.94
Aug 29, 2026backtest	TOT0–2NEW	40% 25% 35%	42 / 26 / 32	H	1.05
Aug 29, 2026backtest	COV0–1HUL	28% 27% 45%	51 / 27 / 22	A	0.80
Aug 29, 2026backtest	BOU1–1EVE	45% 27% 28%	45 / 27 / 28	H	1.30
Aug 29, 2026backtest	LIV2–2NFO	51% 27% 22%	61 / 22 / 17	H	1.30
Aug 28, 2026backtest	CRY1–4MCI	19% 23% 58%	20 / 24 / 56	A	0.54
Aug 24, 2026backtest	FUL2–3CHE	36% 26% 38%	26 / 25 / 49	A	0.97
Aug 23, 2026backtest	NEW2–2LIV	32% 24% 44%	26 / 25 / 49	A	1.43
Aug 23, 2026backtest	MCI2–1BOU	62% 22% 16%	64 / 20 / 16	H	0.48
Aug 23, 2026backtest	BHA4–0AVL	42% 26% 32%	43 / 27 / 30	H	0.87
Aug 22, 2026backtest	BRE3–0TOT	41% 26% 33%	38 / 27 / 35	H	0.90
Aug 22, 2026backtest	NFO0–1LEE	40% 27% 33%	42 / 28 / 30	H	1.10
Aug 22, 2026backtest	IPS2–1SUN	26% 29% 45%	35 / 29 / 36	A	1.36
Aug 22, 2026backtest	EVE2–0CRY	39% 28% 33%	43 / 28 / 29	H	0.93
Aug 22, 2026backtest	HUL2–0MUN	18% 22% 60%	11 / 19 / 70	A	1.72
Aug 21, 2026backtest	ARS3–0COV	80%	79 / 14 / 7	H	0.22