Gameweek 10 · · The City Ground
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Manchester City's higher strength rating (Elo 1789 vs 1566) drives most of this prediction towards a Manchester City win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.0%
- 20-110.4%
- 31-29.8%
- 40-29.5%
- 50-07.5%
| NFO ↓ MCI → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: NFO 1.04, MCI 1.66.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFO win | 23% | 20% | +3 pts |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +2 pts |
| MCI win | 52% | 56% | -5 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 4.70 / 4.00 / 1.67, bookmaker margin 6.3% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| NFO | MCI | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 19th | 1st |
| Points | 6 | 21 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-5 | 7-0-2 |
| Goal difference | -6 | +10 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 2.33 |
NFO at home · MCI away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFO at home | 0-1-3 | 0–3 | 0.25 | 4-8-7 · 1.05 ppg |
| MCI away | 3-0-1 | 9–3 | 2.25 | 9-6-4 · 1.74 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| NFO | MCI | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.73 | 2.12 |
| xG against | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Goals for | 0.67 | 2.22 |
| Goals against | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| Shots for | 17.1 | 14.6 |
| Shots against | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| On target for | 3.8 | 5.5 |
| On target against | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 1 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 8)
- DMar 4, 2026Manchester City 2–2 Nottingham Forest
- LDec 27, 2025Nottingham Forest 1–2 Manchester City
- WMar 8, 2025Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester City
- LDec 4, 2024Manchester City 3–0 Nottingham Forest
- LApr 28, 2024Nottingham Forest 0–2 Manchester City
- LSep 23, 2023Manchester City 2–0 Nottingham Forest
- DFeb 18, 2023Nottingham Forest 1–1 Manchester City
- LAug 31, 2022Manchester City 6–0 Nottingham Forest
W/D/L from Nottingham Forest's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-41 pts
- Rest & fixture congestion-1 pts
- Recent form+0 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%22%27%51%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%24%24%52%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%25%21%54%
- Eloweight 0%15%24%61%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.