Gameweek 9 · · St. James' Park
Low: the outcomes are close together.
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage is what tips it towards a Newcastle United win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.2%
- 22-18.5%
- 30-08.2%
- 41-08.2%
- 51-27.3%
| NEW ↓ EVE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: NEW 1.49, EVE 1.22.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEW win | 41% | 41% | -0 pts |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | +3 pts |
| EVE win | 29% | 32% | -3 pts |
Market average (football-data.co.uk): decimal odds 2.28 / 3.53 / 2.89, bookmaker margin 6.8% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| NEW | EVE | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 14th |
| Points | 11 | 10 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-3 | 2-4-2 |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
| Points per game | 1.38 | 1.25 |
NEW at home · EVE away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW at home | 1-2-1 | 6–6 | 1.25 | 10-2-7 · 1.68 ppg |
| EVE away | 0-3-1 | 3–5 | 0.75 | 7-5-7 · 1.37 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| NEW | EVE | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| xG against | 1.69 | 1.46 |
| Goals for | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.75 | 1.12 |
| Shots for | 12.0 | 13.6 |
| Shots against | 17.4 | 14.5 |
| On target for | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| On target against | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 2 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- LFeb 28, 2026Newcastle United 2–3 Everton
- WNov 29, 2025Everton 1–4 Newcastle United
- LMay 25, 2025Newcastle United 0–1 Everton
- DOct 5, 2024Everton 0–0 Newcastle United
- DApr 2, 2024Newcastle United 1–1 Everton
- LDec 7, 2023Everton 3–0 Newcastle United
- WApr 27, 2023Everton 1–4 Newcastle United
- WOct 19, 2022Newcastle United 1–0 Everton
- LMar 17, 2022Everton 1–0 Newcastle United
- WFeb 8, 2022Newcastle United 3–1 Everton
W/D/L from Newcastle United's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Shot numbers-2 pts
- League table-0 pts
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+2 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%44%27%29%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%38%32%30%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%41%29%30%
- Eloweight 0%51%26%23%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.