Gameweek 11 · · St James' Park
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Arsenal's higher strength rating (Elo 1789 vs 1619) and Arsenal's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +1.8 vs -1.9 per game over the last 10) drive most of this prediction towards an Arsenal win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.3%
- 20-111.1%
- 30-210.3%
- 41-29.9%
- 50-07.9%
| NEW ↓ ARS → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: NEW 0.95, ARS 1.72.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| NEW | ARS | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 2nd |
| Points | 11 | 21 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-3 | 7-0-1 |
| Goal difference | -2 | +8 |
| Points per game | 1.38 | 2.62 |
NEW at home · ARS away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW at home | 1-2-1 | 6–6 | 1.25 | 10-2-7 · 1.68 ppg |
| ARS away | 3-0-1 | 4–3 | 2.25 | 11-5-3 · 2.00 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| NEW | ARS | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.14 | 1.74 |
| xG against | 1.69 | 0.77 |
| Goals for | 1.50 | 1.62 |
| Goals against | 1.75 | 0.62 |
| Shots for | 12.0 | 13.4 |
| Shots against | 17.4 | 10.8 |
| On target for | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| On target against | 5.1 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 2 | 5 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- LApr 25, 2026Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United
- LSep 28, 2025Newcastle United 1–2 Arsenal
- LMay 18, 2025Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle United
- WNov 2, 2024Newcastle United 1–0 Arsenal
- LFeb 24, 2024Arsenal 4–1 Newcastle United
- WNov 4, 2023Newcastle United 1–0 Arsenal
- LMay 7, 2023Newcastle United 0–2 Arsenal
- DJan 3, 2023Arsenal 0–0 Newcastle United
- WMay 16, 2022Newcastle United 2–0 Arsenal
- LNov 27, 2021Arsenal 2–0 Newcastle United
W/D/L from Newcastle United's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-45 pts
- Shot numbers-4 pts
- League table-1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%20%26%54%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%19%25%56%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%20%23%57%
- Eloweight 0%21%26%53%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.