Gameweek 10 · · Old Trafford
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage is what tips it towards a Manchester United win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.5%
- 22-19.4%
- 31-07.5%
- 42-07.2%
- 51-26.9%
| MUN ↓ AVL → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: MUN 1.70, AVL 1.29.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUN win | 46% | 43% | +3 pts |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | +1 pts |
| AVL win | 27% | 32% | -5 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 2.20 / 3.70 / 2.95, bookmaker margin 6.4% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| MUN | AVL | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 9th |
| Points | 7 | 12 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-4 | 3-3-3 |
| Goal difference | -5 | -3 |
| Points per game | 0.78 | 1.33 |
MUN at home · AVL away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUN at home | 1-1-2 | 6–7 | 1.00 | 13-3-3 · 2.21 ppg |
| AVL away | 2-1-1 | 4–6 | 1.75 | 7-6-6 · 1.42 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| MUN | AVL | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| xG against | 1.49 | 1.60 |
| Goals for | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Goals against | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Shots for | 19.4 | 11.4 |
| Shots against | 10.9 | 15.8 |
| On target for | 5.0 | 3.0 |
| On target against | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 0 | 2 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMar 15, 2026Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa
- LDec 21, 2025Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester United
- WMay 25, 2025Manchester United 2–0 Aston Villa
- DOct 6, 2024Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester United
- WFeb 11, 2024Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester United
- WDec 26, 2023Manchester United 3–2 Aston Villa
- WApr 30, 2023Manchester United 1–0 Aston Villa
- LNov 6, 2022Aston Villa 3–1 Manchester United
- DJan 15, 2022Aston Villa 2–2 Manchester United
- LSep 25, 2021Manchester United 0–1 Aston Villa
W/D/L from Manchester United's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+2 pts
- Shot numbers+2 pts
- Recent form+0 pts
- League table-1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%45%26%29%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%46%28%26%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%53%24%23%
- Eloweight 0%42%27%31%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.