Gameweek 11 · · Etihad Stadium
High: the top outcome is at least 60%, or 30+ points clear of the next.
Manchester City's higher strength rating (Elo 1789 vs 1578) and Manchester City's league position (1st vs 15th) drive most of this prediction towards a Manchester City win.
Most likely scorelines
- 12-012.0%
- 21-011.3%
- 31-110.3%
- 42-110.2%
- 53-07.8%
| MCI ↓ FUL → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: MCI 2.00, FUL 0.83.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| MCI | FUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 15th |
| Points | 21 | 9 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 7-0-2 | 2-3-4 |
| Goal difference | +10 | -2 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 1.00 |
MCI at home · FUL away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI at home | 4-0-1 | 11–7 | 2.40 | 14-3-2 · 2.37 ppg |
| FUL away | 1-2-2 | 3–4 | 1.00 | 4-5-10 · 0.89 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| MCI | FUL | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 2.12 | 1.44 |
| xG against | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Goals for | 2.22 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| Shots for | 14.6 | 14.4 |
| Shots against | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| On target for | 5.5 | 4.5 |
| On target against | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WFeb 11, 2026Manchester City 3–0 Fulham
- WDec 2, 2025Fulham 4–5 Manchester City
- WMay 25, 2025Fulham 0–2 Manchester City
- WOct 5, 2024Manchester City 3–2 Fulham
- WMay 11, 2024Fulham 0–4 Manchester City
- WSep 2, 2023Manchester City 5–1 Fulham
- WApr 30, 2023Fulham 1–2 Manchester City
- WNov 5, 2022Manchester City 2–1 Fulham
- WMar 13, 2021Fulham 0–3 Manchester City
- WDec 5, 2020Manchester City 2–0 Fulham
W/D/L from Manchester City's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+35 pts
- League table+2 pts
- Home / away form+0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%62%23%15%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%67%20%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%66%21%
- Eloweight 0%74%18%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.