Gameweek 11 · · Anfield
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Liverpool's higher strength rating (Elo 1724 vs 1635) drives most of this prediction towards a Liverpool win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.4%
- 22-19.0%
- 32-07.1%
- 41-06.8%
- 51-26.7%
| LIV ↓ MUN → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: LIV 1.80, MUN 1.29.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| LIV | MUN | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 17th |
| Points | 15 | 7 |
| Played | 8 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 4-3-1 | 1-4-4 |
| Goal difference | +3 | -5 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 0.78 |
LIV at home · MUN away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV at home | 1-2-1 | 4–5 | 1.25 | 10-6-3 · 1.89 ppg |
| MUN away | 0-3-2 | 4–8 | 0.60 | 7-8-4 · 1.53 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| LIV | MUN | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| xG against | 1.20 | 1.49 |
| Goals for | 1.38 | 1.11 |
| Goals against | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Shots for | 15.4 | 19.4 |
| Shots against | 12.5 | 10.9 |
| On target for | 4.9 | 5.0 |
| On target against | 3.1 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 4 | 0 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- LMay 3, 2026Manchester United 3–2 Liverpool
- LOct 19, 2025Liverpool 1–2 Manchester United
- DJan 5, 2025Liverpool 2–2 Manchester United
- WSep 1, 2024Manchester United 0–3 Liverpool
- DApr 7, 2024Manchester United 2–2 Liverpool
- DDec 17, 2023Liverpool 0–0 Manchester United
- WMar 5, 2023Liverpool 7–0 Manchester United
- LAug 22, 2022Manchester United 2–1 Liverpool
- WApr 19, 2022Liverpool 4–0 Manchester United
- WOct 24, 2021Manchester United 0–5 Liverpool
W/D/L from Liverpool's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+8 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Shot numbers+1 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
- Recent form-0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%50%25%25%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%45%29%26%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%51%24%25%
- Eloweight 0%58%24%18%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.