Gameweek 9 · · Anfield
Low: the outcomes are close together.
Arsenal's higher strength rating (Elo 1789 vs 1724) drives most of this prediction towards an Arsenal win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.4%
- 20-010.0%
- 30-19.7%
- 41-08.8%
- 51-28.1%
| LIV ↓ ARS → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: LIV 1.13, ARS 1.33.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIV win | 31% | 32% | -1 pts |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | +3 pts |
| ARS win | 39% | 40% | -1 pts |
Market average (football-data.co.uk): decimal odds 2.91 / 3.40 / 2.33, bookmaker margin 6.7% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| LIV | ARS | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Points | 15 | 21 |
| Played | 8 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Goal difference | +3 | +8 |
| Points per game | 1.88 | 2.62 |
LIV at home · ARS away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV at home | 1-2-1 | 4–5 | 1.25 | 10-6-3 · 1.89 ppg |
| ARS away | 3-0-1 | 4–3 | 2.25 | 11-5-3 · 2.00 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| LIV | ARS | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.52 | 1.74 |
| xG against | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Goals for | 1.38 | 1.62 |
| Goals against | 1.00 | 0.62 |
| Shots for | 15.4 | 13.4 |
| Shots against | 12.5 | 10.8 |
| On target for | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| On target against | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 4 | 5 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- DJan 8, 2026Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool
- WAug 31, 2025Liverpool 1–0 Arsenal
- DMay 11, 2025Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal
- DOct 27, 2024Arsenal 2–2 Liverpool
- LFeb 4, 2024Arsenal 3–1 Liverpool
- DDec 23, 2023Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal
- DApr 9, 2023Liverpool 2–2 Arsenal
- LOct 9, 2022Arsenal 3–2 Liverpool
- WMar 16, 2022Arsenal 0–2 Liverpool
- WNov 20, 2021Liverpool 4–0 Arsenal
W/D/L from Liverpool's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-23 pts
- League table+1 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
- Recent form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%28%29%43%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%34%31%35%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%36%27%37%
- Eloweight 0%35%27%38%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.