Gameweek 10 · · Elland Road
Low: the outcomes are close together.
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage is what tips it towards a Leeds United win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.5%
- 20-010.0%
- 31-09.9%
- 42-18.4%
- 50-18.2%
| LEE ↓ TOT → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: LEE 1.36, TOT 1.11.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEE win | 40% | 37% | +3 pts |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | +2 pts |
| TOT win | 29% | 35% | -5 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 2.55 / 3.35 / 2.75, bookmaker margin 5.4% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| LEE | TOT | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 8th |
| Points | 11 | 12 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 2-5-2 | 3-3-3 |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.22 | 1.33 |
LEE at home · TOT away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEE at home | 1-3-0 | 6–3 | 1.50 | 9-5-5 · 1.68 ppg |
| TOT away | 1-2-1 | 3–4 | 1.25 | 7-5-7 · 1.37 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| LEE | TOT | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.30 | 1.02 |
| xG against | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| Goals for | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Goals against | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Shots for | 11.9 | 14.2 |
| Shots against | 14.2 | 13.4 |
| On target for | 4.0 | 3.9 |
| On target against | 4.2 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 4 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 8)
- DMay 11, 2026Tottenham Hotspur 1–1 Leeds United
- LOct 4, 2025Leeds United 1–2 Tottenham Hotspur
- LMay 28, 2023Leeds United 1–4 Tottenham Hotspur
- LNov 12, 2022Tottenham Hotspur 4–3 Leeds United
- LFeb 26, 2022Leeds United 0–4 Tottenham Hotspur
- LNov 21, 2021Tottenham Hotspur 2–1 Leeds United
- WMay 8, 2021Leeds United 3–1 Tottenham Hotspur
- LJan 2, 2021Tottenham Hotspur 3–0 Leeds United
W/D/L from Leeds United's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Shot numbers-3 pts
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+1 pts
- Recent form+0 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%43%29%28%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%38%32%30%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%43%28%29%
- Eloweight 0%46%27%27%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.