Gameweek 10 · · Portman Road
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Bournemouth's higher strength rating (Elo 1624 vs 1483) and Bournemouth's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +0.9 vs -1.3 per game over the last 10) drive most of this prediction towards a Bournemouth win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-110.5%
- 21-29.6%
- 30-27.1%
- 42-26.7%
- 51-36.5%
| IPS ↓ BOU → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: IPS 1.33, BOU 2.05.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPS win | 23% | 26% | -3 pts |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | -2 pts |
| BOU win | 53% | 49% | +4 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 3.65 / 3.65 / 1.91, bookmaker margin 7.2% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| IPS | BOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 7th |
| Points | 11 | 12 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-4 | 3-3-3 |
| Goal difference | -4 | +1 |
| Points per game | 1.22 | 1.33 |
IPS at home · BOU away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPS at home | 2-1-1 | 5–5 | 1.75 | 14-8-1 · 2.17 ppgin the Championship |
| BOU away | 1-1-2 | 7–9 | 1.00 | 6-8-5 · 1.37 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| IPS | BOU | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.37 | 1.81 |
| xG against | 2.05 | 1.18 |
| Goals for | 1.56 | 1.56 |
| Goals against | 2.00 | 1.44 |
| Shots for | 10.5 | 14.5 |
| Shots against | 16.9 | 10.5 |
| On target for | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| On target against | 5.5 | 3.9 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 0 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 6)
- WApr 2, 2025Bournemouth 1–2 Ipswich Town
- LDec 8, 2024Ipswich Town 1–2 Bournemouth
- DApr 3, 2015Ipswich Town 1–1 BournemouthChamp.
- DNov 22, 2014Bournemouth 2–2 Ipswich TownChamp.
- DApr 21, 2014Ipswich Town 2–2 BournemouthChamp.
- DDec 29, 2013Bournemouth 1–1 Ipswich TownChamp.
W/D/L from Ipswich Town's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-38 pts
- Shot numbers-3 pts
- Home / away form-1 pts
- Rest & fixture congestion-1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%25%23%52%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%21%25%54%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%21%23%56%
- Eloweight 0%24%27%49%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.