Gameweek 11 · · MKM Stadium
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Brighton & Hove Albion's higher strength rating (Elo 1654 vs 1420) and Brighton & Hove Albion's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +1.2 vs -2.7 per game over the last 10) drive most of this prediction towards a Brighton & Hove Albion win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-113.1%
- 20-111.6%
- 31-29.9%
- 40-29.7%
- 50-08.8%
| HUL ↓ BHA → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: HUL 0.98, BHA 1.57.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| HUL | BHA | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 3rd |
| Points | 11 | 19 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 2-5-2 | 6-1-2 |
| Goal difference | +1 | +17 |
| Points per game | 1.22 | 2.11 |
HUL at home · BHA away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUL at home | 1-4-0 | 7–5 | 1.40 | 11-5-7 · 1.65 ppgin the Championship |
| BHA away | 3-0-2 | 11–6 | 1.80 | 5-5-9 · 1.05 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| HUL | BHA | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.04 | 2.03 |
| xG against | 1.52 | 1.42 |
| Goals for | 1.22 | 2.67 |
| Goals against | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| Shots for | 10.9 | 17.8 |
| Shots against | 14.5 | 11.0 |
| On target for | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| On target against | 5.0 | 3.4 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 6 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 8)
- DFeb 16, 2016Hull City 0–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionChamp.
- LSep 12, 2015Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Hull CityChamp.
- LFeb 9, 2013Brighton & Hove Albion 1–0 Hull CityChamp.
- WAug 18, 2012Hull City 1–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionChamp.
- DFeb 22, 2012Hull City 0–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionChamp.
- DOct 15, 2011Brighton & Hove Albion 0–0 Hull CityChamp.
- LDec 16, 2005Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Hull CityChamp.
- WAug 20, 2005Hull City 2–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionChamp.
W/D/L from Hull City's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-35 pts
- Shot numbers-4 pts
- League table+0 pts
- Recent form-1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%25%28%47%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%19%27%54%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%19%25%56%
- Eloweight 0%14%23%63%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.