Gameweek 10 · · Craven Cottage
Low: the outcomes are close together.
Fulham's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +1.0 vs -1.9 per game over the last 10) drives most of this prediction towards a Fulham win. Newcastle United's higher strength rating (Elo 1619 vs 1578) pulls the other way.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-113.7%
- 22-19.0%
- 31-08.5%
- 40-07.8%
- 51-27.2%
| FUL ↓ NEW → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: FUL 1.49, NEW 1.26.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FUL win | 41% | 43% | -2 pts |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | +2 pts |
| NEW win | 30% | 30% | -1 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 2.20 / 3.55 / 3.10, bookmaker margin 5.9% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| FUL | NEW | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 15th | 12th |
| Points | 9 | 11 |
| Played | 9 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-4 | 3-2-3 |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.38 |
FUL at home · NEW away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUL at home | 1-1-2 | 6–7 | 1.00 | 11-2-6 · 1.84 ppg |
| NEW away | 2-0-2 | 6–8 | 1.50 | 4-5-10 · 0.89 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| FUL | NEW | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.44 | 1.14 |
| xG against | 1.30 | 1.69 |
| Goals for | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals against | 1.22 | 1.75 |
| Shots for | 14.4 | 12.0 |
| Shots against | 14.0 | 17.4 |
| On target for | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| On target against | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 2 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WMay 24, 2026Fulham 2–0 Newcastle United
- LOct 25, 2025Newcastle United 2–1 Fulham
- WFeb 1, 2025Newcastle United 1–2 Fulham
- WSep 21, 2024Fulham 3–1 Newcastle United
- LApr 6, 2024Fulham 0–1 Newcastle United
- LDec 16, 2023Newcastle United 3–0 Fulham
- LJan 15, 2023Newcastle United 1–0 Fulham
- LOct 1, 2022Fulham 1–4 Newcastle United
- LMay 23, 2021Fulham 0–2 Newcastle United
- DDec 19, 2020Newcastle United 1–1 Fulham
W/D/L from Fulham's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-3 pts
- Shot numbers+2 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%40%28%32%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%42%30%28%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%44%28%28%
- Eloweight 0%39%27%34%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.