Gameweek 10 · · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Everton's higher strength rating (Elo 1580 vs 1490) drives most of this prediction towards an Everton win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-113.7%
- 21-010.8%
- 32-19.3%
- 42-09.3%
- 50-09.1%
| EVE ↓ COV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: EVE 1.56, COV 0.99.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| EVE win | 49% | 55% | -6 pts |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | +5 pts |
| COV win | 22% | 21% | +1 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 1.71 / 3.95 / 4.50, bookmaker margin 5.9% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| EVE | COV | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 14th | 16th |
| Points | 10 | 9 |
| Played | 8 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-2 | 3-0-6 |
| Goal difference | -1 | -7 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
EVE at home · COV away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVE at home | 2-1-1 | 5–4 | 1.75 | 6-5-8 · 1.21 ppg |
| COV away | 1-0-3 | 2–7 | 0.75 | 11-7-5 · 1.74 ppgin the Championship |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| EVE | COV | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.26 | 0.95 |
| xG against | 1.46 | 1.49 |
| Goals for | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.12 | 1.78 |
| Shots for | 13.6 | 10.6 |
| Shots against | 14.5 | 16.8 |
| On target for | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| On target against | 4.2 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 1 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 0)
These clubs have not met in the league since 2004-05.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+12 pts
- Promoted club+1 pts
- Shot numbers+1 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Recent form+0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%49%28%23%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%49%30%21%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%59%24%17%
- Eloweight 0%59%24%17%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.