Gameweek 10 · · Selhurst Park
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Liverpool's higher strength rating (Elo 1724 vs 1568) and Liverpool's stronger shot numbers (shots-on-target difference +1.6 vs -2.1 per game over the last 10) drive most of this prediction towards a Liverpool win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-111.9%
- 21-210.1%
- 30-18.8%
- 40-28.6%
- 50-06.3%
| CRY ↓ LIV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: CRY 1.14, LIV 1.79.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRY win | 23% | 21% | +1 pts |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +2 pts |
| LIV win | 52% | 55% | -3 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 4.40 / 4.00 / 1.69, bookmaker margin 6.9% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| CRY | LIV | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 5th |
| Points | 7 | 15 |
| Played | 9 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-6 | 4-3-1 |
| Goal difference | -12 | +3 |
| Points per game | 0.78 | 1.88 |
CRY at home · LIV away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRY at home | 1-0-3 | 6–10 | 0.75 | 4-9-6 · 1.11 ppg |
| LIV away | 3-1-0 | 7–3 | 2.50 | 7-3-9 · 1.26 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| CRY | LIV | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.38 | 1.52 |
| xG against | 1.97 | 1.20 |
| Goals for | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Goals against | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Shots for | 11.0 | 15.4 |
| Shots against | 16.9 | 12.5 |
| On target for | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| On target against | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 1 | 4 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- LApr 25, 2026Liverpool 3–1 Crystal Palace
- WSep 27, 2025Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool
- DMay 25, 2025Liverpool 1–1 Crystal Palace
- LOct 5, 2024Crystal Palace 0–1 Liverpool
- WApr 14, 2024Liverpool 0–1 Crystal Palace
- LDec 9, 2023Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool
- DFeb 25, 2023Crystal Palace 0–0 Liverpool
- DAug 15, 2022Liverpool 1–1 Crystal Palace
- LJan 23, 2022Crystal Palace 1–3 Liverpool
- LSep 18, 2021Liverpool 3–0 Crystal Palace
W/D/L from Crystal Palace's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-38 pts
- Shot numbers-6 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%24%26%50%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%21%25%54%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%21%25%54%
- Eloweight 0%23%26%51%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.