Gameweek 11 · · Coventry Building Society Arena
Low: the outcomes are close together.
The teams are closely matched on the model's inputs, so home advantage is what tips it towards a Coventry City win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.9%
- 20-08.6%
- 31-27.9%
- 42-17.8%
- 50-17.3%
| COV ↓ CRY → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: COV 1.39, CRY 1.32.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| COV | CRY | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 16th | 18th |
| Points | 9 | 7 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-6 | 2-1-6 |
| Goal difference | -7 | -12 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.78 |
COV at home · CRY away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COV at home | 2-0-3 | 7–9 | 1.20 | 17-4-2 · 2.39 ppgin the Championship |
| CRY away | 1-1-3 | 3–11 | 0.80 | 7-3-9 · 1.26 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| COV | CRY | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 0.95 | 1.38 |
| xG against | 1.49 | 1.97 |
| Goals for | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.78 | 2.33 |
| Shots for | 10.6 | 11.0 |
| Shots against | 16.8 | 16.9 |
| On target for | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| On target against | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 1 | 1 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- DMar 6, 2012Coventry City 1–1 Crystal PalaceChamp.
- LAug 16, 2011Crystal Palace 2–1 Coventry CityChamp.
- WFeb 12, 2011Coventry City 2–1 Crystal PalaceChamp.
- LNov 13, 2010Crystal Palace 2–0 Coventry CityChamp.
- WFeb 20, 2010Crystal Palace 0–1 Coventry CityChamp.
- DNov 21, 2009Coventry City 1–1 Crystal PalaceChamp.
- DApr 7, 2009Crystal Palace 1–1 Coventry CityChamp.
- LNov 8, 2008Coventry City 0–2 Crystal PalaceChamp.
- LDec 26, 2007Coventry City 0–2 Crystal PalaceChamp.
- DSep 18, 2007Crystal Palace 1–1 Coventry CityChamp.
W/D/L from Coventry City's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)-8 pts
- Home / away form+2 pts
- Recent form-0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%40%28%32%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%31%35%34%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%38%28%34%
- Eloweight 0%33%28%39%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.