Gameweek 11 · · Stamford Bridge
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Chelsea's higher strength rating (Elo 1646 vs 1583) drives most of this prediction towards a Chelsea win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.8%
- 22-19.3%
- 31-08.5%
- 42-08.0%
- 50-07.1%
| CHE ↓ LEE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: CHE 1.66, LEE 1.18.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| CHE | LEE | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 11th |
| Points | 16 | 11 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-3 | 2-5-2 |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
| Points per game | 1.78 | 1.22 |
CHE at home · LEE away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHE at home | 3-1-1 | 13–8 | 2.00 | 7-5-7 · 1.37 ppg |
| LEE away | 1-2-2 | 3–5 | 1.00 | 2-9-8 · 0.79 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| CHE | LEE | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| xG against | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| Goals for | 2.11 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.67 | 0.89 |
| Shots for | 13.4 | 11.9 |
| Shots against | 12.8 | 14.2 |
| On target for | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| On target against | 5.6 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 2 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 8)
- DFeb 10, 2026Chelsea 2–2 Leeds United
- LDec 3, 2025Leeds United 3–1 Chelsea
- WMar 4, 2023Chelsea 1–0 Leeds United
- LAug 21, 2022Leeds United 3–0 Chelsea
- WMay 11, 2022Leeds United 0–3 Chelsea
- WDec 11, 2021Chelsea 3–2 Leeds United
- DMar 13, 2021Leeds United 0–0 Chelsea
- WDec 5, 2020Chelsea 3–1 Leeds United
W/D/L from Chelsea's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+9 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Recent form-0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%48%26%26%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%46%28%26%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%50%26%24%
- Eloweight 0%55%25%20%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.