Gameweek 10 · · American Express Stadium
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Brighton & Hove Albion's higher strength rating (Elo 1654 vs 1615) and Brighton & Hove Albion's home record (Brighton & Hove Albion 2.2 points per game in recent home matches, Brentford 1.0 in recent away matches) drive most of this prediction towards a Brighton & Hove Albion win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-112.0%
- 22-19.7%
- 32-08.3%
- 41-08.2%
- 51-26.2%
| BHA ↓ BRE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: BHA 1.81, BRE 1.16.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHA win | 51% | 49% | +2 pts |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +0 pts |
| BRE win | 23% | 26% | -3 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 1.91 / 3.70 / 3.60, bookmaker margin 7.2% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| BHA | BRE | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Points | 19 | 14 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 6-1-2 | 3-5-1 |
| Goal difference | +17 | +7 |
| Points per game | 2.11 | 1.56 |
BHA at home · BRE away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHA at home | 3-1-0 | 13–1 | 2.50 | 9-6-4 · 1.74 ppg |
| BRE away | 0-4-0 | 6–6 | 1.00 | 6-3-10 · 1.11 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| BHA | BRE | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 2.03 | 1.68 |
| xG against | 1.42 | 1.48 |
| Goals for | 2.67 | 1.78 |
| Goals against | 0.78 | 1.00 |
| Shots for | 17.8 | 14.9 |
| Shots against | 11.0 | 15.0 |
| On target for | 5.4 | 4.4 |
| On target against | 3.4 | 4.6 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 6 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WFeb 21, 2026Brentford 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion
- WNov 22, 2025Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Brentford
- LApr 19, 2025Brentford 4–2 Brighton & Hove Albion
- DDec 27, 2024Brighton & Hove Albion 0–0 Brentford
- DApr 3, 2024Brentford 0–0 Brighton & Hove Albion
- WDec 6, 2023Brighton & Hove Albion 2–1 Brentford
- DApr 1, 2023Brighton & Hove Albion 3–3 Brentford
- LOct 14, 2022Brentford 2–0 Brighton & Hove Albion
- WDec 26, 2021Brighton & Hove Albion 2–0 Brentford
- WSep 11, 2021Brentford 0–1 Brighton & Hove Albion
W/D/L from Brighton & Hove Albion's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+11 pts
- Home / away form+3 pts
- Recent form-1 pts
- Rest & fixture congestion+0 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Shot numbers+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%52%25%23%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%51%26%23%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%57%25%18%
- Eloweight 0%51%26%23%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.