Gameweek 11 · · Gtech Community Stadium
Low: the outcomes are close together.
Brentford's higher strength rating (Elo 1615 vs 1580) drives most of this prediction towards a Brentford win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.0%
- 21-09.5%
- 30-08.9%
- 42-18.7%
- 52-08.1%
| BRE ↓ EVE → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: BRE 1.49, EVE 1.11.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| BRE | EVE | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 14th |
| Points | 14 | 10 |
| Played | 9 | 8 |
| W-D-L | 3-5-1 | 2-4-2 |
| Goal difference | +7 | -1 |
| Points per game | 1.56 | 1.25 |
BRE at home · EVE away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRE at home | 3-1-1 | 10–3 | 2.00 | 8-8-3 · 1.68 ppg |
| EVE away | 0-3-1 | 3–5 | 0.75 | 7-5-7 · 1.37 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| BRE | EVE | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.68 | 1.26 |
| xG against | 1.48 | 1.46 |
| Goals for | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| Goals against | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Shots for | 14.9 | 13.6 |
| Shots against | 15.0 | 14.5 |
| On target for | 4.4 | 4.8 |
| On target against | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- DApr 11, 2026Brentford 2–2 Everton
- WJan 4, 2026Everton 2–4 Brentford
- DFeb 26, 2025Brentford 1–1 Everton
- DNov 23, 2024Everton 0–0 Brentford
- LApr 27, 2024Everton 1–0 Brentford
- LSep 23, 2023Brentford 1–3 Everton
- LMar 11, 2023Everton 1–0 Brentford
- DAug 27, 2022Brentford 1–1 Everton
- WMay 15, 2022Everton 2–3 Brentford
- WNov 28, 2021Brentford 1–0 Everton
W/D/L from Brentford's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+6 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
- Shot numbers-0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%46%28%26%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%41%31%28%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%47%26%27%
- Eloweight 0%51%26%23%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.