Gameweek 11 · · Vitality Stadium
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Bournemouth's higher strength rating (Elo 1624 vs 1566) drives most of this prediction towards a Bournemouth win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-113.4%
- 21-09.5%
- 32-19.1%
- 42-08.5%
- 50-08.2%
| BOU ↓ NFO → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: BOU 1.57, NFO 1.09.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| BOU | NFO | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 19th |
| Points | 12 | 6 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-3 | 1-3-5 |
| Goal difference | +1 | -6 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
BOU at home · NFO away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOU at home | 2-2-1 | 7–4 | 1.60 | 7-10-2 · 1.63 ppg |
| NFO away | 1-2-2 | 6–9 | 1.00 | 7-3-9 · 1.26 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| BOU | NFO | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.81 | 1.73 |
| xG against | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| Goals for | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Goals against | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Shots for | 14.5 | 17.1 |
| Shots against | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| On target for | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| On target against | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 3 | 1 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- DMay 24, 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth
- WOct 26, 2025Bournemouth 2–0 Nottingham Forest
- WJan 25, 2025Bournemouth 5–0 Nottingham Forest
- DAug 17, 2024Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth
- DFeb 4, 2024Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest
- WDec 23, 2023Nottingham Forest 2–3 Bournemouth
- DJan 21, 2023Bournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest
- WSep 3, 2022Nottingham Forest 2–3 Bournemouth
- WMay 3, 2022Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham ForestChamp.
- WAug 14, 2021Nottingham Forest 1–2 BournemouthChamp.
W/D/L from Bournemouth's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+12 pts
- League table-1 pts
- Recent form-0 pts
- Home / away form+1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%49%27%24%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%45%29%26%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%48%25%27%
- Eloweight 0%54%25%21%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.