Gameweek 11 · · Villa Park
Medium: the top outcome is at least 45%, or 15+ points clear of the next.
Aston Villa's higher strength rating (Elo 1652 vs 1490) drives most of this prediction towards an Aston Villa win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-114.2%
- 21-010.0%
- 30-09.3%
- 42-08.9%
- 52-18.8%
| AVL ↓ SUN → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: AVL 1.56, SUN 1.01.
Model vs bookmakers
Odds for this fixture are not available yet. football-data.co.uk usually publishes them a few days before the round; DraftKings odds via ESPN appear about a week ahead.
Recent form
League position
| AVL | SUN | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 20th |
| Points | 12 | 5 |
| Played | 9 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-3 | 1-2-6 |
| Goal difference | -3 | -10 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.56 |
AVL at home · SUN away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVL at home | 1-2-2 | 6–7 | 1.00 | 12-2-5 · 2.00 ppg |
| SUN away | 0-1-4 | 6–13 | 0.20 | 5-6-8 · 1.11 ppg |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| AVL | SUN | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| xG against | 1.60 | 1.88 |
| Goals for | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| Goals against | 1.44 | 1.89 |
| Shots for | 11.4 | 12.0 |
| Shots against | 15.8 | 14.1 |
| On target for | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| On target against | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 2 | 2 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WApr 19, 2026Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland
- DSep 21, 2025Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa
- WMar 6, 2018Sunderland 0–3 Aston VillaChamp.
- WNov 21, 2017Aston Villa 2–1 SunderlandChamp.
- LJan 2, 2016Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa
- DAug 29, 2015Aston Villa 2–2 Sunderland
- WMar 14, 2015Sunderland 0–4 Aston Villa
- DDec 28, 2014Aston Villa 0–0 Sunderland
- WJan 1, 2014Sunderland 0–1 Aston Villa
- DNov 30, 2013Aston Villa 0–0 Sunderland
W/D/L from Aston Villa's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+17 pts
- Recent form-1 pts
- Shot numbers-1 pts
- League table-1 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%51%27%22%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%43%33%24%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%50%27%23%
- Eloweight 0%68%21%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.