Gameweek 10 · · Emirates Stadium
High: the top outcome is at least 60%, or 30+ points clear of the next.
Arsenal's higher strength rating (Elo 1789 vs 1420) and Arsenal's home record (Arsenal 2.7 points per game in recent home matches, Hull City 0.5 in recent away matches) drive most of this prediction towards an Arsenal win.
Most likely scorelines
- 11-017.0%
- 22-016.4%
- 33-010.0%
- 42-19.7%
- 51-18.5%
| ARS ↓ HUL → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
From the Dixon-Coles goals model, rescaled so the home / draw / away totals match the final prediction. Expected goals: ARS 1.95, HUL 0.54.
Model vs bookmakers
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARS win | 73% | 81% | -7 pts |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | +6 pts |
| HUL win | 8% | 7% | +1 pts |
DraftKings (via ESPN): decimal odds 1.17 / 7.50 / 14.00, bookmaker margin 5.7% removed proportionally. ◆ marks gaps of 10+ points. Bookmakers have historically been more accurate than this model (see Performance), so a big gap is more often the model missing something (injuries, team news) than a mispriced market.
Recent form
League position
| ARS | HUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 10th |
| Points | 21 | 11 |
| Played | 8 | 9 |
| W-D-L | 7-0-1 | 2-5-2 |
| Goal difference | +8 | +1 |
| Points per game | 2.62 | 1.22 |
ARS at home · HUL away
| This season W-D-L | GF–GA | PPG | Last season | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS at home | 4-0-0 | 9–2 | 3.00 | 15-2-2 · 2.47 ppg |
| HUL away | 1-1-2 | 4–5 | 1.00 | 10-5-8 · 1.52 ppgin the Championship |
Underlying numbers (this season, per game)
| ARS | HUL | |
|---|---|---|
| xG for | 1.74 | 1.04 |
| xG against | 0.77 | 1.52 |
| Goals for | 1.62 | 1.22 |
| Goals against | 0.62 | 1.11 |
| Shots for | 13.4 | 10.9 |
| Shots against | 10.8 | 14.5 |
| On target for | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| On target against | 3.0 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 5 | 3 |
Premier League matches only. xG from football-data.co.uk (8 and 8 matches with xG).
Rest since last match (all competitions)
Includes domestic cups and European games from ESPN's schedule data.
Head to head (last 10)
- WFeb 11, 2017Arsenal 2–0 Hull City
- WSep 17, 2016Hull City 1–4 Arsenal
- WMay 4, 2015Hull City 1–3 Arsenal
- DOct 18, 2014Arsenal 2–2 Hull City
- WApr 20, 2014Hull City 0–3 Arsenal
- WDec 4, 2013Arsenal 2–0 Hull City
- WMar 13, 2010Hull City 1–2 Arsenal
- WDec 19, 2009Arsenal 3–0 Hull City
- WJan 17, 2009Hull City 1–3 Arsenal
- LSep 27, 2008Arsenal 1–2 Hull City
W/D/L from Arsenal's point of view. League meetings only.
What moves this prediction
- Strength ratings (Elo + goals model)+42 pts
- Home / away form+3 pts
- Shot numbers+2 pts
- Recent form-1 pts
- Promoted club+1 pts
- League table+0 pts
Each bar shows how the gap between home-win and away-win probability changes when the two teams are made equal on that group of inputs. It explains the model, not football causality.
Model components
- Dixon-Coles goals modelweight 50%66%23%
- Gradient boostingweight 50%80%14%
- Logistic regressionweight 0%78%17%
- Eloweight 0%87%
The final prediction is the weighted average shown. Weights were chosen on the 2016-17 to 2020-21 validation seasons. Model version v20261029-e9c638.